Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 9.010232 10.597158 12.334072 14.369991 16.684380 19.226772 22.224000
2025-02-09 6.611850 8.776720 11.387887 14.739180 18.893052 23.837462 30.129260
2025-02-16 4.922998 7.274549 10.360886 14.637209 20.327112 27.547770 37.299493
2025-02-23 3.692808 6.021000 9.318633 14.205734 21.115908 30.368880 43.492068
2025-03-02 2.783219 4.981447 8.324252 13.591316 21.453293 32.486635 48.807324
2025-03-09 2.238155 4.359544 7.796915 13.511165 22.446469 35.492751 55.478713
2025-03-16 1.789931 3.787777 7.229556 13.248981 23.077614 37.959140 61.491393
2025-03-23 1.594186 3.615268 7.277342 13.950687 25.229590 42.802642 71.286763
2025-03-30 1.353804 3.301582 7.020499 14.087761 26.454908 46.280594 79.210152
2025-04-06 1.143392 2.998100 6.726575 14.106012 27.455932 49.442054 86.805729
2025-04-13 0.963073 2.715112 6.420885 14.050965 28.301659 52.380013 94.191183
2025-04-20 0.911437 2.713742 6.672896 15.064844 31.106156 58.714853 107.402031
2025-04-27 0.827280 2.622278 6.738310 15.751360 33.429089 64.479068 120.168054
2025-05-04 0.744068 2.514710 6.755211 16.347912 35.648001 70.231079 133.288149
2025-05-11 0.629750 2.292870 6.479235 16.304447 36.643904 73.905657 143.093402
2025-05-18 0.511652 2.023414 6.041786 15.854280 36.793653 76.062003 150.378616
2025-05-25 0.404786 1.750387 5.540299 15.187176 36.429612 77.231832 155.962424
2025-06-01 0.341334 1.595889 5.309786 15.101678 37.238019 80.611343 165.651857
2025-06-08 0.281009 1.429181 5.012515 14.814345 37.584548 83.120140 173.868585
2025-06-15 0.263313 1.416653 5.143651 15.585863 40.273785 90.295184 191.026692
2025-06-22 0.229455 1.326972 5.033726 15.736560 41.600553 94.861367 203.501511
2025-06-29 0.196992 1.229600 4.881249 15.756646 42.630864 98.888593 215.136222
2025-07-06 0.167472 1.131939 4.707505 15.696188 43.466534 102.561730 226.252869